Available Scenarios
The tool function toolGetScenarioDefinition() can be
used to see what driver/scenario options are available.
toolGetScenarioDefinition() %>% print(n = 200)
#> # A tibble: 31 × 5
#> driver scenario pastData futureData harmonization
#> <chr> <chr> <chr> <chr> <chr>
#> 1 GDPpc SSPs WDI-MI SSPsOld-MI calibSSPs
#> 2 GDPpc SDPs - - calibSDPs
#> 3 GDPpc SSP2EU - - GDPoverPop
#> 4 GDPpc ISIMIP WDI-MI SSPsOld-MI calibSSPs
#> 5 GDPpc noCovid WDI-MI SSPsOld-MI calibNoCovid
#> 6 GDPpc longCovid - - calibLongCov…
#> 7 GDPpc shortCovid - - calibShortCo…
#> 8 GDPpc SSPsOld - - GDPoverPop
#> 9 GDP SSPs - - GDPpcWithPop
#> 10 GDP SDPs - - GDPpcWithPop
#> 11 GDP ISIMIP - - GDPpcWithPop
#> 12 GDP SSP2EU Eurostat-WDI-MI SSP2EU-MI calibSSP2EU
#> 13 GDP noCovid - - GDPpcWithPop
#> 14 GDP longCovid - - GDPpcWithPop
#> 15 GDP shortCovid - - GDPpcWithPop
#> 16 GDP SSPsOld IHME_USD05_PPP_pc-MI SSPs-MI past_transit…
#> 17 Population SSPs WDI-UN_PopDiv-MI SSPs-UN_PopDiv… withPEAPandF…
#> 18 Population SDPs WDI-UN_PopDiv-MI SDPs-UN_PopDiv… withPEAPandF…
#> 19 Population SSP2EU Eurostat-WDI-UN_PopDiv-MI SSP2EU-UN_PopD… calibSSP2EU
#> 20 Population ISIMIP UN_PopDiv-MI SSPs-UN_PopDiv… calibISIMIP
#> 21 Population SSPsOld WDI-MI SSPsOld-MI past_transit…
#> 22 Population noCovid WDI-UN_PopDiv-MI SSPs-UN_PopDiv… withPEAPandF…
#> 23 Population longCovid WDI-UN_PopDiv-MI SSPs-UN_PopDiv… withPEAPandF…
#> 24 Population shortCovid WDI-UN_PopDiv-MI SSPs-UN_PopDiv… withPEAPandF…
#> 25 Labour SSPs - SSPs -
#> 26 Labour SDPs - SDPs -
#> 27 Labour SSP2EU - SSP2EU -
#> 28 Labour SSPsOld - SSPsOld -
#> 29 Urban SSPs WDI SSPs past
#> 30 Urban SDPs WDI SDPs past
#> 31 Urban SSP2EU WDI SSP2EU pastSo for example, there are currently 7 GDPpc scenarios available: the SSPs, the SDPs, SSP2EU, noCovid, longCovid, shortCovid and SSPsOld scenarios.
User Defined Scenarios
The user can create custom scenarios by creating a tibble called
“mrdivers_scenarios” in the global environment, and filling it with the
desired scenario definitions. The structure of the “mrdivers_scenarios”
object should be identical to that of the return object of
toolGetScenarioDefinition(), and the scenario building
blocks have to be available. For example, say the user wanted to create
SSP scenarios, but without using the Missing Islands data-set. The
following command executed in the global environment would make the
“nomi” (no-missing islands) scenario available.
mrdrivers_scenarios <- tibble::tribble(
~driver, ~scenario, ~pastData, ~futureData, ~harmonization,
"GDPpc", "nomi", "WDI", "SSPsOld", "calibSSPs",
"Population", "nomi", "WDI", "SSPs", "withPEAPandFuture",
"GDP", "nomi", "-", "-", "GDPpcWithPop"
)Default Scenarios
By default, the following scenarios are returned for all drivers:
- the SSPs, i.e. SSP1-5
- the SDPs, i.e. SDP, SDP_EI, SDP_RC, and SDP_MC
- SSP2EU
References
GDP and GDPpc scenarios
SSPs
Suggested overall reference: Koch and Leimbach 2023 (link).
Detailed references: the SSP GDP per capita scenarios are constructed using past WDI data (link) (filled in with MI data (link), and growth rates from James2019-WB data (DOI of previous version of data: doi:10.1186/1478-7954-10-12)) and SSP GDP projections (filled in with MI projections (link)). The harmonization makes use of short term growth rates from IMF (link). For more details on the harmonization, see Koch and Leimbach 2023 (link).
SDPs
The SDPs are all based off of SSP1, with different harmonization functions for the different SDPs. No citable reference available.
SSP2EU
SSP2EU is based off of SSP2, but for EUR-Region countries, Eurostat data and short-term projections (link) are used instead of WDI and IMF data.
Population scenarios
SSPs
Suggested overall references: K. C., S, 2020 (link) and Lutz et al., 2018 (link).
Detailed references: the SSP population scenarios are constructed using past WDI data (link) (filled in with UN_PopDiv data (link) and MI data (link), and SSP population projections (filled in with UN_PopDiv data (link) and MI data (link). The harmonization makes use of short term growth rates from UN_PopDiv (link). For more details on the harmonization, see Koch and Leimbach 2023 (link).
SDPs
The SDPs are all based off of SSP1, with different harmonization functions for the different SDPs. No citable reference available.
SSP2EU
SSP2EU is based off of SSP2, but for EUR-Region countries, Eurostat data and short-term projections (link) are used instead of WDI and UN_PopDiv data.