A methodological paper with the title “Validation of Climate Mitigation Pathways” is available as pre-print here.
Abstract
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are crucial for climate policymaking, offering climate mitigation scenarios and contributing to IPCC assessments. However, IAMs face criticism for lack of transparency and poor capture of recent technology diffusion and dynamics. We introduce the Potsdam Integrated Assessment Modeling validation tool, piamValidation, an open-source R package for validating IAM scenarios. The piamValidation tool enables systematic comparisons of variables from extensive IAM datasets against historical data and feasibility bounds, or across scenarios and models. This functionality is particularly valuable for harmonizing scenarios across multiple IAMs. Moreover, the tool facilitates the systematic comparison of near-term technology dynamics with external observational data, including historical trends, near-term developments, and stylized facts. We apply the tool to the integrated assessment model REMIND for near-term technology trend validation, demonstrating its potential to enhance transparency and reliability of IAMs.
Reproduce Plots
The code and data to reproduce the plots in the publication are available in the package. After installation, please follow these steps:
library(piamValidation)
# NGFS validation
scen_NGFS <- piamutils::getSystemFile("extdata/NGFS_scenario_data_publication.rds",
package = "piamValidation")
hist_NGFS <- piamutils::getSystemFile("extdata/NGFS_reference_data_publication.rds",
package = "piamValidation")
validationReport(dataPath = c(scen_NGFS, hist_NGFS),
config = "publication_NGFS",
report = "publication_NGFS")
# REMIND near-term trends
scen_REMIND <- piamutils::getSystemFile("extdata/REMIND_scenario_data_publication.rds",
package = "piamValidation")
hist_REMIND <- piamutils::getSystemFile("extdata/REMIND_reference_data_publication.rds",
package = "piamValidation")
validationReport(dataPath = c(scen_REMIND, hist_REMIND),
config = "publication",
report = "publication")This creates two HTML reports with the respective plots in an
output folder in the current working directory.